2024 Electoral Map Predictions

With research contributed by Jaeredan Harvey & Xavier Harvey

Hi all! This post is a quick one I wanted to shoot off before the results started coming out in full swing for the 2024 Presidential Election. Also, it is the culmination of a research project my younger brothers (hi, Xavier! Hi, Jaeredan!) and I have been working on dutifully for the past few months. I believe it’s really important to instill our youth with rigorous political education that will allow them to be attentive, mindful, and conscientious citizens when they come of age. Fortunately, both my brothers have been kind and curious enough to receive that education from me. We’ve had a boatload of fun over the past few weeks.

I’d like to expand on our justifications further, but I’m obviously a little crunched for time. So I’m going to include brief explanations with plenty of sources, as usual. I’m very interested to see how the map plays out over the next couple of weeks, and analyzing the differences!

We mostly focused our research on the seven swing states that have been identified this cycle, the states that will ultimately determine the outcome of the Electoral College: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Our methods were rather unscientific and mostly vibes-based. This was a project intended to challenge my younger brothers in evaluating sources, identifying what is fact versus what is opinion, and trying to suss out what the average person is feeling politically, something that even seasoned pollsters and pundits often get wrong. We prioritized reading and listening to interviews with regular, working-class people, along with recent history and contemporaneous events that we felt may affect the outcome.

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Arizona: Democratic

Major reasons here include demographic changes—more Gen Z, Hispanic voters, and people moving from California (who are notoriously more liberal)—as well as the recent election of Arizona’s first Democratic governor in a while (Katie Hobbs), and Arizona’s U.S. Senators both being Democrat (until Kyrsten Sinema switched to being independent, anyway).

I suspect Harris’ housing policies will be attractive to voters who claim that housing has become far too expensive in the Phoenix metropolitan area. Abortion is also on the ballot for Arizonans, and I believe Harris’ reproductive rights platform, along with slightly stronger showings with female voters will help her here.

However, some of the other numbers have been concerning: Republican voter registrations have gone up while Democratic voter registrations have gone down. Immigration has also been a rather weak issue for Harris, and it is a top concern for many Arizonans.

Georgia: Republican

Lots of hijinks by the Republican Party to purge voters illegally from voter rolls. Not ot mention the election deniers currently sitting on the Georgia Elections Board. Fortunately their rulings are getting blocked by state courts, but I worry that this and their various modes of voter suppression will have a chilling effect that will ultimately be successful.

Also, Harris is not polling as well among Black male voters compared to Biden or Clinton, which will be pivotal in Georgia, which boasts the highest proportion of Black people of all the swing states.

Michigan: Republican

Most significantly, a lack of Arab-American support that will probably keep Harris from beating Trump in this state. Why? The genocide in Gaza. It’s that simple. Jill Stein from the Green Party is also beating Kamala Harris with Muslim voters nationwide.

Nevada: Democratic

Xavier insisted on Nevada going Democratic, and I think he’s right on the money: Latinos are royally *pissed off* after Trump’s MSG rally and all the racist remarks against Latinos. There is a strong Latino presence in the state and many of them work in hospitality or tourism on the Vegas strip. Big unions including the Culinary Union and Nevada Teamsters have made endorsements for Harris.

As someone who’s lived in Nevada for much of her life, I’m also inclined to think that the state has a Democratic tilt, although it’s very, very slight. After seeing Bernie win the state in the 2020 Democratic primary, however, I’m convinced that the best way to break through to Nevadan voters is with solid economic proposals, and I think Harris’ recent tax credits, commitment to raise the minimum wage, and her promise to eliminate taxes on tips speaks quite directly to Nevadan voters.

North Carolina: Democratic

I truly do think that Mark Robinson is going to bring down Trump’s chances in this state. Usually Trump can avoid being too closely associated with his counterparts, but this guy is too nasty. And the shift in the polls after Harris became the nominee was enough to turn North Carolina from a lean Republican state to a battleground state, which tells me that Harris is energizing young and Black voters there.

Pennsylvania: Democratic

This has been the most difficult state to predict of them all. Similar to Nevada, though, I truly do think the Trump rally at MSG—where a comedian described Puerto Rico as “an island of floating garbage”—skewered his chances with the massive Puerto Rican population there. Also, Trump is lagging with older voters for the early vote, but it’s difficult to tell if this is because they’re not voting for him or if they’re following his directive of voting in-person these days.

Wisconsin: Republican

Another incredibly difficult state to predict, with wildly changing counties and independently thinking voters. This is probably the most vibes-based prediction on this list. But this segment produced by 60 Minutes made me feel like voters were more concerned about the economy at the end of the day, and trust Trump more. (To be clear, the segment didn’t really come to any clear conclusion. Mostly going off what that last guy said.)

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This was a fun exercise that allowed me to dig in deep and experience the political mood in other parts of the country. I hope everyone stays safe tomorrow (technically, today, as this is getting published just after midnight on November 5th), and tell me what you think of our predictions! Tell me what yours were, if you had any, or feel free to point out how wrong we were. Stay tuned for some juicy post-election analysis!